I made it to my first recovery week.
The first three weeks of the Sub-8 IRONMAN California build are checked off, and it’s been a solid opening block with both total duration and TSS building each week:
Week 1: 20 hours and 1,285 TSS
Week 2: 21 hours and 15 minutes and 1,363 TSS
Week 3: 22 hours and 14 minutes and 1,432 TSS
That’s a lot of TSS for one week, let alone three in a row. But I’ve been able to recover on easy days and still hit most of the key workouts as planned.
During block 1, my fitness graphs, according to TrainingPeaks, have made progress.
After Rockford, my training kind of stalled a bit, but now I’m back, focused and I’ve seen a nice increase over the last 28 days.
This week ahead is a recovery week.
My fatigue levels are a bit high due to the high TSS over the last 3 weeks, so the goal is to bring those down to more manageable levels. For me this means, backing off the intensity a bit (not completely), while trying to keep a bit of volume.
I always struggle during recovery weeks with wanting to do too much.
Even yesterday I found myself stir crazy after work, so I went out and mowed our lawn. And then the neighbors.
Hot Take of the Week
The Hot Take of the Week comes from AI. I’ll share a full blog on how I’m utilizing AI to help with my Sub-8 goal, but for today I’ll just share a basic question I asked it.
“Give it to me straight. Based on my training to date, what are my realistic chances of breaking 8 hours at IRONMAN California"
AI: “You have a 55% chance. The engine is there. What's still open is durability — whether the run holds up under full race fatigue, not whether you’re fit enough”.
I asked for a further break down of each of the disciplines:
Swim: 85%. 38-42 min is realistic even in a mediocre current year
Bike: 85%. Your strongest leg. FTP is trending up. 4:15-4:23 is earned, not hoped for.
Run: 45-55% — this is where your goal lives or dies. You have zero clean data yet showing you can hold anything close to goal pace for a full marathon off full Ironman fatigue.
Transitions: 90%+. Not a real variable. Don’t mess this up.
Pretty spot on if you ask me. If you said there was a 55% chance it would rain tomorrow, I’d pack a rain jacket.
Still have 10 more weeks to push that probability up higher.
What do YOU think my odds are? Vote below
Keep reading below how I’m actually feeling for each discipline.
Last Week’s Training Log
The Swim
Like the AI bot said, the swim I have a pretty good chance of executing. The biggest missing piece right now for me is open water swimming. I just haven’t been doing it. I know I can swim the distance in a fast time, but my issues have always come from being able to relax, avoid anxious moments and/or panic attacks. More time in open water has alway helped alleviate this.
Races with swim warm ups usually go much better for me as well. Since it’s a river swim, there will be no swim warm up.
This is my reminder to get outside and find a lake.
Last week’s swim volume:
3hrs 23 minutes
14,709 yds
I’m still continuing my 3x per week swim cadence, but thinking of adding a 4th day come September.
The Bike
This is where I feel the most confident of all 3 disciplines. I’ve had some very promising workouts over the last 3 weeks—including this past Saturday.
I had 5 hours on tap, with hard 10 min intervals out of the gate. During the first one, I gave up and decided on plan B: to ride at IRONMAN power instead. My goals was to do 5x40’ at IM power goal.
I struggled through the first 40’, just felt like I was grinding the whole time.
After some contemplation with myself and AI, I decided to drop the watts down and just ride 3 hours steady in zone 2.
After about 30 minutes, the body started coming around. I pushed the power up 10 watts. Then 10 watts more. Before the end of the 3 hour interval was I pushing 15 watts HIGHER than my goal IRONMAN power.
This is just another reminder to not judge a workout by the first part of it. Always try to finish it out, even if it means reducing the intensity.
Same goes on race day. Things can change quickly. Feeling good goes to feeling bad, just as quickly as feeling bad can go to feeling good.
Total bike volume for the week:
11:26 mins
All indoors on Zwift
I’m feeling confident in my power goals for IRONMAN California. However, there are always factors out of my control, like wind and race-day weather.
With that said, I’ve got a fun analysis I’ll share next week on how I’ve been using Best Bike Split over the last 5 years to predict, plan, and execute my bike leg during my races. Stay tuned (And yes, paid subscribers of Sub8Stack get a discount code to try it out)
The Run
This is where I feel very aligned with what AI had to say about the probability of running ~2:50ish off the bike at IRONMAN California.
It’s right, I’ve never run that fast before and my pace at Muncie 70.3 was at or slower than the pace I’m planning to run at California.
However, I don’t take the 45-55% chance as a blow to my confidence, I take it as a challenge.
I’ve been running very well over the last 3 weeks during block 1. My long runs are up to 18.5 miles with last week’s run having 13 miles at or faster than goal pace
The long run I did was:
2 mi easy
1mi on
.5 easy
2mi on
.5 easy
4mi on
.5 easy
6 mi on
.5 easy
1 mile cool down
Total time was 1:54:45 for 18.5 miles (6:12 avg pace)
That’s the kind of run durability I need: not just speed, but speed when the legs are already carrying three weeks of load.
The workout that is the biggest predictor of my success (or failure) this week was the brick run on Saturday after my “Plan C” ride.
After 4hrs 45 min of riding, I did 8 miles at goal pace and 1.5 miles cool down. The route I took was a bit rolling, and it was already heating up in the afternoon.
My heart rate was 5-10 bpm higher than where I want it to be on race day, but given the amount of fatigue I was carrying (and being untapered), I called it a success.
Just need to do that ~3X in a row (plus add in a swim).
Run totals for the week:
6hrs 21 mins
58 total miles
The Other Stuff
I’m continuing to work on my strength training, but only 1 session this week. Primary focus is still my glute strength, hamstring flexibility, and over durability for the run.
I had my 20 year high school reunion on Saturday. Man, I’m now sure where those 20 years went, but they went by fast. It was fun to see some old friends and faces, but I definitely paid for the beers on Sunday when I woke up.
New Blog Coming: The Cost of Success
I’ll be launching a new blog soon, talking through how much it actually costs to compete on high-level across a full triathlon season.
I’ll share all the costs from: race entries, nutrition, bike upgrades, travel, and more!
How much do you think it costs to race one 70.3 race? You’d be surprised how much goes into besides the race entry.
Recap
The work is there. The fitness is moving. Now the challenge is absorbing it.
That’s the part I’m usually worst at, which probably makes this recovery week just as important as any 22-hour build week.
That’s it for the free side of this week’s recap.
Paid subscribers get the full data report: TrainingPeaks load, WHOOP scores, workout details, fueling notes, sponsor discount codes, and the inside info I didn’t share above.
This week also includes a Best Bike Split discount code and an early look at what’s coming with my IRONMAN California kit sponsor.
